The 2026 Houston Open tees off Thursday at Memorial Park Golf Course, marking the first stop in a two-week Texas swing leading into the Masters. Texas native Scottie Scheffler enters as the overwhelming favorite at +310 odds, with no other competitor priced lower than +2200.
The field features several notable contenders including defending champion Min Woo Lee (+2200), Chris Gotterup (+2200), Sam Burns (+2500), Jake Knapp (+2700), and Brooks Koepka (+2700). Koepka has managed just one top-10 finish this season across five tournaments since his return to the PGA Tour.
SportsLine's proprietary golf model has generated surprising predictions after simulating the tournament 10,000 times. The model, developed by DFS professional Mike McClure, has established a remarkable track record of success in major championship predictions.
The model's accuracy extends to predicting "a whopping 16 majors entering the weekend, including the 2025 Masters -- its fourth Masters in a row -- as well as last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship," according to the analysis.
Lee struggled in his most recent outing at The Players Championship, where he "shot 70 or higher in each round, including a fourth-round 74 as he finished T32." This performance appears to have influenced the model's projection for the 27-year-old golfer.
In a contrasting surprise, the model identifies Nicolai Hojgaard as "a top-three favorite this week despite his long odds at +4000." The Danish golfer's recent form supports this optimistic projection, as he "hasn't finished worse than T27 at any other event this season" aside from a difficult weekend at the Valspar Championship.
Hojgaard's consistent play includes impressive showings with "a T3 at the WM Phoenix Open and a T6 at the Cognizant Classic," demonstrating his ability to contend at the highest level.
The model's analysis extends beyond these primary selections, identifying additional value opportunities in the field. The system has targeted "three other golfers going off at +4000 or higher to make a strong run, including a massive +6000 longshot."
Scheffler's status as the heavy favorite reflects both his recent form and home-state advantage. However, the model's historical success in identifying value picks and upset potential suggests bettors should consider looking beyond the obvious chalk.
The tournament field represents a mix of established stars and rising talent, creating opportunities for breakthrough performances. With the Masters looming, players will be eager to build momentum and confidence in their final competitive rounds before Augusta.
Golf enthusiasts and bettors will be watching to see if the model's surprising predictions materialize when competition begins Thursday. The system's proven track record in major championships adds credibility to its contrarian takes on both favorites and longshots in Houston.