The 2026 PGA Championship at Aronimink Golf Club is shaping into a two-horse race at the top of the betting boards, with Scottie Scheffler the clear favorite and Rory McIlroy the only contender priced anywhere close. Behind them, the picture is far more interesting, and the venue itself is set to do plenty of the work in deciding what kind of player walks off with the Wanamaker.
Scheffler is the defending champion of golf's second major, and his form coming into Aronimink continues to look more like an inevitability than a streak. The world No. 1's strokes-gained dominance, particularly his approach play, has been the defining statistic of the last two seasons. CBS Sports's predictive golf model — which the network notes has correctly called 17 majors — has Scheffler comfortably ahead of the field, and most major sportsbooks reflect that, listing him in the 4-1 to 9-2 range.
McIlroy enters as the second favorite, a position that would have looked absurd 18 months ago but is now logical. His back-to-back Masters victories in 2025 and 2026 unblocked the major dam that had stretched to a decade and a half, and his Doral-skipping decision to focus on PGA Championship prep has been read as a signal that Aronimink is firmly his next priority. Most boards have him in the 9-1 to 10-1 range, with the Truist Championship at Quail Hollow this week offering a final tune-up.
The most discussed value name is Keegan Bradley. Bradley won at Aronimink in 2018 when the course hosted the BMW Championship, and his comfort there has been cited repeatedly in betting previews this week. Aronimink rewards a controlled cut from the tee and crisp iron play to elevated greens — both Bradley strengths — and his current odds in the 35-1 to 40-1 range look generous given that course history.
The LIV Golf contingent will not be ignored. Bryson DeChambeau, the reigning U.S. Open champion, is widely listed in the top 10 of the betting markets, and Jon Rahm is being treated as a live longshot at around 18-1. Joaquin Niemann's recent form on LIV has prompted some books to shorten his price into the 30s, while Brooks Koepka, a five-time major winner, attracts perennial major-championship interest despite a tough 2025.
Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Aberg and Cameron Young are the analyst favourites in the second tier. Aberg's ball-striking profile fits the course almost perfectly, and several previews have noted that Aronimink's penal rough is precisely the type of test where his combination of length and accuracy could pay. Young, who romped to victory at the Cadillac Championship at Doral last weekend in a six-shot win, arrives at Aronimink with the strongest momentum on the PGA Tour.
The absences will shape strategy as much as the inclusions. Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson are both out, as is Collin Morikawa, who withdrew from the Truist Championship this week with ongoing back issues. Morikawa's absence is significant — his ball-striking metrics over Donald Ross designs would have made him a dark horse — and his withdrawal before the season's second major opens up another exotic value position for picks.
Dustin Johnson's late special exemption complicates the mid-tier picture, although his form does not warrant short prices. The more serious value plays appear in the 50-1 to 75-1 band: Sungjae Im, Tom Kim and Justin Thomas all have historical PGA Championship returns at Donald Ross courses that justify a small position.
With roughly 200,000 spectators expected, a restored Donald Ross routing, and a leaderboard certain to feature Scheffler, McIlroy and a wave of in-form contenders, Aronimink has the ingredients to deliver one of the most-watched major weeks of the year.