Scottie Scheffler will arrive at Aronimink Golf Club next month as the clear favourite to defend his PGA Championship title, with sportsbooks installing the world number one at +340 for the second major of the 2026 season.
The championship, scheduled to begin Thursday 14 May at Aronimink in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania, marks the first time the storied A. W. Tillinghast design has hosted the PGA since its long-running amateur and professional events of the mid-20th century. The course, operating as a pure parkland test in contrast to the bomber-friendly Quail Hollow setup where Scheffler won by five strokes last year, is expected to reward ball-striking accuracy and careful course management.
After Scheffler, the early market forms a clear tier: Rory McIlroy at +750, Jon Rahm at +1400, Bryson DeChambeau at +1600 and Xander Schauffele at +1700 round out the top five on FanDuel's board.
SportsLine's statistical model, which has correctly predicted 17 major championship winners including five consecutive Masters champions, both majors in 2025 and the recent 2026 Masters, has published two notable departures from the consensus.
The model fades DeChambeau, projecting the two-time US Open champion to miss the top five despite relatively generous odds. The recommendation aligns with a run of results that has included a missed cut at the Masters and a mid-tournament withdrawal from LIV Golf Mexico City with a wrist injury. DeChambeau has not posted a top-10 finish on any tour since February, and the concerns about his wrist add uncertainty around a player whose swing speed has been central to his recent major successes.
The model's contrarian pick is Tommy Fleetwood at +2000. The 2025 Tour Championship winner ranks at or near the top of the PGA Tour's strokes gained off-the-tee metrics this season and has performed consistently in the early-season elevated events. The flag SportsLine identifies is the Englishman's putting, which has ranked below tour average through 2026 and has cost him strokes in his closing rounds. A moderate improvement on Aronimink's relatively manageable Poa greens, the model argues, would be enough to put him in contention for a maiden major title.
McIlroy arrives at Aronimink off the back of his Masters win, the career grand slam that sealed his status as the modern era's most complete player. Historical patterns suggest a player who has just completed a major is unusually difficult to read in the immediate follow-up: McIlroy's post-Masters form has ranged from dominance to form slumps across his prior major wins.
Rahm's profile remains one of the most difficult in modern major analysis. His win at LIV Golf Mexico City last week was preceded by a tied-38th finish at the Masters and, per his own assessment, a week in which he played "very badly." The variance makes him a consistent each-way prospect rather than a reliable outright favourite at shorter prices.
DeChambeau, McIlroy, Schauffele and a small group of others are among the players SportsLine identifies as among the 20 contenders with reasonable paths to the title, alongside longshots priced at 20-1 or longer who the model believes have meaningful chances.
The PGA Championship remains the major with the deepest exempt category list, admitting the top 100 from the prior year's season-long money list alongside major winners, top club professionals and exempt LIV Golf players. Several LIV-based competitors will return to the same major stage they contested last year, including Rahm, DeChambeau and Cam Smith, keeping the broader narrative about the sport's competitive division alive through the week.
The opening round tees off on Thursday 14 May at 7:00am local time, with the championship concluding on Sunday 17 May.