A renowned golf expert who called six PGA Tour winners last season has revealed his strategy for the 2026 Valero Texas Open, and it includes fading one of the tournament favorites.
Brady Kannon, an elite golf betting handicapper with over three decades of industry experience, is avoiding Ludvig Aberg despite the Swede entering as co-favorite at 15-1 odds. The tournament begins Thursday at TPC San Antonio - The Oaks Course with a $9.8 million purse at stake.
Kannon's track record speaks volumes about his expertise. Since 2013, he has correctly predicted eight major championship winners and nailed six PGA Tour victors in 2025 alone, including 110-1 longshot Harris English at the Farmers Insurance Open. His most recent success came when he hit on Matt Fitzpatrick at 15-1 odds during the Valspar Championship on March 22.
"The Big Swede is my favorite new player on the PGA Tour scene in the last few years but I don't like this spot for him here this week as the tournament favorite and his quest for a third straight top-10 finish at The Masters on deck," Kannon told SportsLine.
Aberg's course history at TPC San Antonio raises red flags for the handicapper. Despite the 25-year-old's familiarity with the venue from his college days at nearby Texas Tech, his professional results have been disappointing.
"Aberg is very familiar with TPC San Antonio, having played it numerous times during his college days at nearby Texas Tech. However, that has not translated all that well, having missed the cut twice here in his three professional visits," Kannon explained.
The expert acknowledges Aberg's recent form improvement after struggling with illnesses earlier this season. Two top-five finishes in his last two starts have positioned the young star well heading into Augusta National. However, Kannon questions whether this momentum might actually work against Aberg at the Valero Texas Open.
"He definitely has a skill set that translates here at this golf course and the form has been coming around nicely since he was struggling with illnesses earlier this season. With two top-5 finishes in his last two starts, he has to be feeling great heading into The Masters. I have to wonder if he even wants to be here for all four days. It is an awfully short price to pay when we are wondering what his mindset is between now and what lies ahead," Kannon said.
Defending champion Brian Harman returns to TPC San Antonio as a significant longshot at +6000 odds, seeking his fifth PGA Tour victory and second consecutive Valero Texas Open title. The par-72 layout measuring 7,438 yards has historically favored players who excel at course management and precision iron play.
The betting favorites include Tommy Fleetwood joining Aberg at +1500, while Russell Henley (+1600), Jordan Spieth (+1800), and Robert MacIntyre (+2000) round out the top contenders. Several players have expressed enthusiasm about returning to the challenging Texas venue.
"I love it. It's you one of my favorites we play," said Sepp Straka, who enters at +2200 odds and has shown strong affinity for TPC San Antonio's demanding layout.
Tony Finau, listed at +6000 odds, has praised the course design in previous visits. "After today's round, if you're just asking that, we've got a good relationship. Eight birdies is good, I think, around this place. If I can eliminate some of those bogeys we'll have a shot on Sunday, but I definitely put myself in contention today," Finau said about Pete Dye's challenging design.
Kannon's analysis extends beyond just avoiding Aberg, as he has identified a surprising longshot with strong course history as his top outright selection. His methodology combines statistical analysis with course-specific factors and player psychology, particularly relevant with major championships on the horizon.
The tournament field also features rising stars like Maverick McNealy (+2700) and Michael Thorbjornsen (+3000), along with veteran competitors seeking to build momentum before The Masters. With first-round action beginning at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday, players will face challenging conditions on one of the tour's more demanding layouts.
Kannon's strategic approach of fading public favorites while identifying value plays has proven successful throughout his career. His 33-29-5 record on head-to-head matchup bets since joining SportsLine demonstrates his ability to find profitable angles beyond traditional outright winner selections.
As the PGA Tour continues its march toward Augusta National, the Valero Texas Open serves as a crucial final tune-up for many contenders. Whether Kannon's contrarian approach on Aberg proves prescient will unfold over four days of Texas golf, where course management and mental fortitude often trump raw talent.